Technical Progress Report

Foodnet Project G.10

The general goal of the project is to investigate a viable business or market driven interventional strategy to enhance Irish potato production in Kenya and East Africa. Irish potatoes are second to maize in Kenya as energy food and are potentially viable Food commodities for alleviation of chronic food insecurity, associated with frequent maize crop failure due to the frequent drought conditions. The project seeks to investigate the viability of the establishment and operation of a National Potatoes storage structure similar to the National Cereals and Produce Board, but operated commercially with similar operational objectives, namely

a.       Element of strategic reserve and

b.      Prices stabilization for the benefit of producers, (mainly in order to increase production) but also consumers for purposes of improving consumption as an alternative to the staple maize.

The project's deliverables are:

a.       Market research studies on potatoes

b.      Pilot plant investigations on the storage and utilization quality behavior of the popular local potato varieties and

c.       The economic viability analysis of establishment and operation of large-scale potato storage facilities operated under the prevailing conditions.

The market research studies are meant to illuminate the market conditions influencing Irish potatoes, and particularly determine factors that fuel price fluctuations, the role of potatoes storage and its potential as an interventional strategy in stabilizing prices, given the prevailing market dynamics. The studies on the potato cultivars are meant to examine the storability of the available popular varieties, with reference to delaying setting or elimination of spoilage characteristics for purposes of reducing wastage on storage, and conserving the utilization qualities.

 The economic analysis of commercial potato storage is expected to provide data to enable develop a feasibility report on the viability of large-scale commercial potatoes storages, given the expected investment, operational costs, and different prices offered to producers for potatoes that should provide farmers with sufficient incentives to produce more potatoes.

2.         The Study Design and Methodology

2.1       Market Studies On Potatoes

      The activities here involved:

a.   Extensive literature review meant to retrieve secondary data on national Irish Potato production, prices fluctuation and contributing factors. Data on other constraining factors to production of Irish potatoes were also examined.

2. A field study using an interview guide was carried out in Nyandarua district as well as at the market destination points in such urban centres like Nairobi, Naivasha and Nakuru. This exercise was meant to document and characterise the potatoes marketing channels as well as the agents involved, for potatoes grown in Nyandarua, a major potato growing area in Kenya.  The marketing functions for various agents were examined as well as the varieties and quantities handled, supply pattern, extent of storage, wastage in the chains, prices changes in the chains and the mechanisms for prices determination by the agents. Annexure 1 indicates the instruments used to gather the market data in Nyandarua and market consumer outlets in the urban areas.

2.2              Storage Behaviour and Utilisation

The varieties under study for the storability and which are popular and traded commercially are:

Variety                                                                                    Utilisation

Dutch (Ngorof/Bomet)                                                  Crisps

Tana, Nyayo and Tigoni                                                            Chips

Kerrs Pink (Meru)                                                                    Stew and mashing

Each variety was washed to remove soil dirt, dipped in 50 to 60 per cent ethanol solution to dry them or harden or make the skin firm, dusted with Propham, a germination suppressant and packed in small wooden crates. About 50kg were put in each crate for each variety and put in different environmentally controlled cabinets. The storage conditions set for all the five cabinets are as follows:

• Light proofed (No light, day or artificial) with black polythene sheet.
• Humidity set at 95 per cent.
• Temperature at 50 degrees F =10 degrees C.

The quality parameters that were monitored with time are:

a.         Deteriorative.

• Weight loss
• Time sprouting began from the eyes and length of sprout with time
• Greening development
• Storage rot
• Shrivelling—development of softness and compression.

b.           Utilisation Quality

·        Crisps—Brown colour development on deep-frying in oil

            ---Sugars (sweetness development)

                  ---Taste (Bitterness development)

·        Chips—Colour development

                ---Sugars

                ---Oil absorption (sogginess).

·        Stew/mashing—Flouriness check and development of translucence (mashing)

                                          ----Taste in comparison to the fresh control.

Annexure II shows the experimental design for the storage study

2.3              Economic Viability of Potato Storage

Data gathering towards the goal under this output has been initiated with the largest potato Storage Company in Holland, namely Netagco Tolsma B.V, which has branches in Germany, France and Russia. A questionnaire of Netagco Tolsma B.V, annexure III, indicates the basis and type of data being exchanged to facilitate compilation of relevant technical and financial data for the feasibility study.

The data obtained so far from outputs 1& 2 are proving invaluable in synthesising the necessary information for the questionnaire. Data derived from this questionnaire, plus supplementary data to be derived from a visit to the Netagco potato storage facility and subsequent assessment of investment costs related to buildings and other fixed costs will assist in putting together the necessary economic statistics appropriate to our local situation, for the purpose of viability analysis for a commercially operated potato storage in Kenya.

3.0 Results

3.1 Potatoes Market Structure in Kenya

Table I shows production statistics for potatoes in five provinces in Kenya for the years 1997 to 2000. Central province leads both in hacterage and tonnage production accounting for 40-60%of the total national potato production. Over the four years central province produced an average of 412,700 metric tonnes per year from an average of 57,650 hectares. Rift Valley followed this with an annual average production of 228230 metric tonnes from 27,138 hectares, and Eastern province, producing annual average of 160,725 metric tonnes from 22315 hectares. In total annual potato production in Kenya ranged from 670,000 metric tonnes in 1998 and 2000 to 1,050,000 metric tonnes in 1999. Such drastic fluctuations in production can be explained by the rainfall precipitation pattern, which has been erratic, with intervening dry spells. Fluctuations in yields are also weather or rainfall dependent. In general, rainfall has been higher in the Western Kenya, and that explains why yields are on average higher in Western and Riftvalley provinces. However, production in RiftValley, Western and Nyanza provinces has remained depressed in both cultivated area and potato production despite the relatively better weather conditions. Such discrepancy can be attributed to the market. The major market for potatoes is in large urban areas such as Nairobi, Mombasa and Nakuru. Accordingly, Central and Eastern provinces benefit from being near these markets, given the high transport costs involved in transporting bulky and high moisture commodities such as potatoes.

Tables 2 a, b, c and d show the detailed potatoes production statistics for the years 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2000 respectively by districts in the provinces of Kenya, in acreage and tonnage, according to long and short rain seasons of their production.

Tables 3 a, b, c, d and e present the recorded monthly prices for red and white potato varieties for the years 1995 to 2000. Previous similar studies on potato prices by Durr and Lorenzl in 1980 lumped together potato varieties on the basis of whether red or white and found a very significant difference in prices between red or white varieties based on colour grouping. Figures1 a and b present the yearly price and production averages for the five most productive districts in potatoes in a graphic form for the period 1995-2000.

Table 1: Total Annual Potato Production and Yields In Hacterage and Metric Tonnes;

1997-2000

 Province            1997                             1998                                             1999                                     2000                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                  Ha                    MT     Ha                  MT                        Ha              MT                   Ha                MT             

Central          76,283       501,454(7)         52,335          395,948(7.5)          53,325       475,722(9)            48,670         277,729(5.7)

Coast                    25             250(10)             --                         --                       15              154(10)                  --                   --                         

Eastern          20,172       125,762(6)          14,064           69,298(5)             32,718       314,403(9.5)         22,310        133,440(6)

R. Valley       21,666      203,177(9)           22,851         204,730(9)             27,591      251,904(9)             36,442        253,118(7)

Western              450         4,565(10)               362            3,609(10)                 468          5,075(11)                609            5,704(9.5)

Total             118,596    835,208(7)           89,612          673,58(7.5)        114,117    1,047,260(9)           108,031          669,991(6)

Ha=Hectares      MT=Metric tonnes            Figures in brackets = Yield per hectare

Table 2a                                  Irish Potatoes 1997

 Annual Production

Central

Coast

Eastern

Rift Valley

Western

Summary

Table 2b                      Irish Potatoes 1998 

Central

Coast

Eastern

Rift Valley

Western

Nairobi